The likeliest scenarios after the election dust settles

Everything but the voting and vote counting, and even more vote counting, has come to a close. So what’s going to happen in the 2022 midterm elections?

The past few cycles offer ample reasons to be open-minded about multiple potential outcomes. Zeroing in on a single scenario not only risks missing the actual outcome, it conveys a level of precision that does not exist in political handicapping. The better approach is to consider multiple scenarios and their levels of probability. 

Despite a Democratic surge for a few weeks in the...