What Are the Odds of a Recession and How Much Will It Hurt? Your Questions Answered

Are we heading toward a recession? A new paper from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday analyzed three economic models to determine the odds of a recession, with mixed conclusions. While two models showed low risk, a broader analysis of inflation and unemployment indicators predicts a rise in jobless numbers over the next year, which could lead to a recession. The report notes that, "historically, elevated inflation and low unemployment have preceded recessions."

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced the biggest interest rate increase in 28 years, raising rates by 75 basis points, in an attempt...