China’s Taiwan Invasion Plans May Get Faster and Deadlier

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fueled concern over China’s plans for Taiwan, which it has repeatedly threatened to invade. Some speculate that the odds of invasion have increased, while others argue that Western unity and Russian military failures should counsel Chinese caution regarding the island.

This discussion conflates two different questions: Has the Ukraine conflict changed Beijing’s willingness to use force against Taiwan? And has the Ukraine conflict altered Beijing’s and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) assessments of its ability to conduct a successful amphibious invasion of Taiwan?

China’s willingness to use force is a political...