Inflation is About to Come Down — but Don’t Get Too Excited

The inflation report for March came in hot, as expected: Consumer prices are up 8.5 percent over the past year. But more than two years into the pandemic, we’re still living on Covid time, where things can change very fast — so fast that official data, even about the recent past, can give a misleading picture of what’s happening now.

In this case, the Consumer Price Index — which roughly speaking measures average prices over the month — probably missed a downward turn that began in late March and is accelerating as you read...