Four Reasons to Keep Worrying About Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may have retired the term, but conventional wisdom still holds that most of the excess inflation in 2021 was transitory. Many economists and market watchers expect most of it to disappear in 2022. I am much less sure and expect the economy to experience elevated inflation this year, possibly even higher than in 2021.

The core personal-consumption-expenditure price index (which is, de facto, what the Fed targets) rose around 4.5% in 2021. The median Federal Open Market Committee member expects it to slow to 2.7%...