How to make sense of the case and hospitalization data as omicron takes off

A lot of Americans are going to get infected with the omicron variant of the novel coronavirus in the coming days and weeks. The United States is currently averaging more than 143,000 new cases every day, already nearly matching the peak of the delta wave over the summer and well on its way toward the record of 250,000 daily cases seen last winter.

Record case numbers seem likely in the near future. Hospitalizations and deaths will increase to some degree as well; they always do. But how much they increase remains to be seen, since...