The biggest surprise in Wednesday morning’s arguments in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. (NYSRPA) v. Bruen, a major Second Amendment case before the Supreme Court, is that conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett appeared open to many of New York state’s arguments defending its restrictions on where individuals may carry a gun.

Even if Barrett does side with New York, however, her vote is unlikely to matter. Four justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh — left little doubt that they will read the Second...