Will rising crime rates sink the push for police reform?

In the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder in May 2020 and the worldwide protest movement it inspired, there were signs that comprehensive police reform was possible in the United States. The public expressed strong support, reform-minded lawmakers signaled major changes in big cities, and a bipartisan deal in Congress seemed possible.

Those reform efforts have largely stalled, however. Cities have backed off their plans to transform their police departments. The George Floyd Justice in Policing Act has stalled in the Senate. Public support for the Black Lives Matter movement has dipped. Meanwhile,...