Trump Turned Nonvoters Into Voters in 2020. Will They Turn Out for Next Year’s Midterms?

New data on the 2020 election show that then-President Donald Trump drew substantial support in some battleground states from Americans who had skipped prior elections, creating a new pool of voters whose decisions on whether to participate again will be central to next year’s midterms.

These voters had cast ballots intermittently or sat out all prior elections, despite being old enough to vote, but were drawn off the sidelines by the Republican president’s race against his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. New analyses by TargetSmart, a Democratic voter-data firm, and the Republican National Committee found that...