https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/04/special-report-problem-coronavirus-models-how-we-talk-about-them/164649/
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Despite what political leaders want them to say, COVID-19 models will become less predictive exactly when we need them most.
In the continuing drama of America’s coronavirus response, statistical models play the role of Hamlet’s father: foreboding, influencing the action on the stage but unable to speak for themselves.
Some health leaders have said that various COVID-19 models’ worst projections — such as the Imperial College London model that predicted that 500,000 Britons would die — were overly dire. That skepticism about what the models truly say will play...
