SPECIAL REPORT: The Problem With Coronavirus Models Is How We Talk About Them

Despite what political leaders want them to say, COVID-19 models will become less predictive exactly when we need them most.

In the continuing drama of America’s coronavirus response, statistical models play the role of Hamlet’s father: foreboding, influencing the action on the stage but unable to speak for themselves.

Some health leaders have said that various COVID-19 models’ worst projections — such as the Imperial College London model that predicted that 500,000 Britons would die — were overly dire. That skepticism about what the models truly say will play...