Infectious Disease Experts Don’t Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either

One of the most pernicious parts of the COVID-19 crisis is how uncertain everything is. Researchers and officials cite statistical models that estimate infection rates, death counts and when things will go back to normal, but those estimates are changing rapidly. And as the forecasts bounce around, so do the rest of us living through the crisis. How can one feel settled when the future feels so volatile?

Still, there’s a way to at least get a sense for what the experts are thinking. For the past five weeks, infectious...