Foreign Policy Doesn’t Usually Affect Elections. Could Iran Be Different?

The American-ordered drone strike that killed one of Iran’s most powerful military leaders, Qassem Soleimani, has triggered retaliation from Iran and put American troops in the Middle East on heightened alert. It has also brought foreign policy to the top of the news cycle. How events unfold from here is uncertain, but we leave that analysis to others with more expertise in world affairs. Instead, we’d like to take a step back and use political science and polling data to explore the question of how heightened tensions with Iran could...