What Could Sink Trump’s Chances in 2020?
Anything can happen before November 2020, from a hurricane to a third-party candidate.
What factors usually reelect or throw out incumbent presidents?
The economy counts most.
Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment, and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.
The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush...