OPINION: Iran will get the blame, but the Gulf of Oman truth is likely a lot murkier

As the plumes rise from a brazen attack in the Gulf of Oman, oil brokers and diplomats are panicking about another lurch toward confrontation In the Middle East.

What happened is fairly clear -- two tankers were struck as they sailed through this busy and strategic shipping lane -- but why it happened and who did it is a lot less easy to explain, not least because it doesn't appear to benefit any of the protagonists in the region.

The Japanese owned Kokuka Corageous tanker briefly caught fire when it...